Polymarket earnings beat/miss markets achieved 79.7% directional accuracy at D-1 across 909 events — rising to 87.8% for high-conviction signals — while adding meaningful lift over the naive base rate. This paper analyzes accuracy, the beat/miss asymmetry, volume as a quality filter, and investment applications for equity managers.

Kalshi prediction markets correctly identified the actual FOMC decision in 23 of 24 consecutive meetings — a 95.7% directional accuracy rate. This paper analyzes the accuracy, timeliness, and investment implications of Fed rate decision prediction markets across a full policy cycle including hikes, holds, and cuts.